Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.399389 2.550879 2.711707 2.895968 3.102249 3.327268 3.592937
2025-03-23 2.199296 2.409164 2.643812 2.928519 3.268710 3.667649 4.179460
2025-03-30 2.033028 2.269738 2.543408 2.888496 3.320073 3.853791 4.584174
2025-04-06 1.905996 2.158268 2.457399 2.846023 3.350095 4.001528 4.944379
2025-04-13 1.788848 2.047120 2.359251 2.774173 3.328020 4.069794 5.195303
2025-04-20 1.734613 2.007549 2.344231 2.803185 3.435833 4.318755 5.736421
2025-04-27 1.697488 1.985594 2.347991 2.854206 3.574660 4.623424 6.412425
2025-05-04 1.663483 1.964595 2.350140 2.901008 3.709124 4.934969 7.159404
2025-05-11 1.607158 1.911104 2.305269 2.877802 3.736792 5.081335 7.643780
2025-05-18 1.557644 1.863865 2.265666 2.858312 3.766598 5.232134 8.165953
2025-05-25 1.510126 1.816937 2.223689 2.831874 3.782038 5.358630 8.666323
2025-06-01 1.467442 1.774572 2.185677 2.808304 3.798982 5.488097 9.202964
2025-06-08 1.432175 1.741546 2.160034 2.802900 3.846997 5.683518 9.955571
2025-06-15 1.410851 1.726669 2.159149 2.834718 3.959238 6.014335 11.152206
2025-06-22 1.370137 1.683274 2.115243 2.796878 3.948740 6.104915 11.756037
2025-06-29 1.331359 1.641219 2.071483 2.756635 3.930427 6.176899 12.336191
2025-07-06 1.286861 1.589759 2.012094 2.688500 3.857476 6.126960 12.538108
2025-07-13 1.271816 1.579347 2.012471 2.716020 3.958537 6.459512 14.101125
2025-07-20 1.263247 1.577680 2.025466 2.764391 4.101886 6.909952 16.368701
2025-07-27 1.253949 1.574510 2.035851 2.808735 4.241660 7.380211 19.126812
2025-08-03 1.228366 1.546892 2.007934 2.786751 4.250076 7.533458 20.631425
2025-08-10 1.204918 1.521719 1.982860 2.768283 4.263871 7.703109 22.390111
2025-08-17 1.180983 1.495189 1.954792 2.743223 4.262266 7.832919 24.085627